Gold prices surged sharply on June 15, 2025, both in Vietnam and on the global market, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Domestic gold, especially SJC gold bars, experienced a significant price jump of more than 3 million Vietnamese dong (VND) per tael compared to the previous week, reflecting a strong ripple effect from international developments.
On the morning of June 15, SJC gold bars were widely quoted at approximately 117.8 million VND per tael for buying and 120.3 million VND per tael for selling. This marked a rapid increase that broke a two-week downward trend. Similarly, gold rings and 99.99% purity jewelry gold rose by about 2.7 million VND per tael, trading near 113.7 million VND for buying and 116.2 million VND for selling. The domestic market's price acceleration outpaced that of gold rings, narrowing the usual price gap between domestic and international gold values.
Globally, spot gold on the Kitco exchange traded at $3,430 per ounce, up $54 within 24 hours leading up to June 15. Gold futures for August 2025 on the Comex New York market hovered around $3,452 per ounce. This surge pushed gold prices to a record weekly closing above $3,400 per ounce, a level not seen before. Experts attribute this rally to the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran, which has unsettled investors worldwide.
Geopolitical instability often drives investors toward gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty. As risks in the Middle East rise, capital has flowed out of riskier assets like stocks and into gold and government bonds. However, analysts caution that such price spikes linked to geopolitical events tend to be short-lived unless accompanied by sustained escalation or supportive macroeconomic factors.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, commented on the situation, noting, "The conflict between Israel and Iran could keep gold prices above $3,400, but it will not push prices higher without significant escalation." Hansen’s remarks underscore the cautious optimism among market watchers, who recognize the temporary nature of such geopolitical-driven rallies.
Lukman Otunuga, Senior Market Analyst at FXTM, offered a perspective on the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting, highlighting its potential impact on gold's trajectory. He said, "If the Fed adopts a dovish stance after the latest inflation report, it could provide strong momentum for gold buyers, potentially pushing prices beyond the all-time high of $3,500." Otunuga also warned of the opposite scenario: "A hawkish Fed meeting, with Chairman Powell expressing caution about future interest rate cuts, could dampen gold's appeal as investors scale back expectations for rate reductions."
Should gold prices weaken and fail to hold the $3,430 level, analysts predict a retreat toward support levels of $3,400 and $3,360. This would reflect a correction after the recent surge, aligning with historical patterns where gold prices fluctuate in response to both geopolitical tensions and central bank policies.
Meanwhile, domestic market dynamics are also influenced by regulatory changes. The State Bank of Vietnam is currently soliciting feedback on a draft amendment to the decree governing gold market management. Notably, the draft proposes ending the SJC gold bar monopoly and allowing multiple qualified entities to participate in the market. This policy shift could increase competition and affect domestic gold pricing structures in the near future.
In addition to geopolitical and policy factors, the European Central Bank’s latest report highlights gold's rising importance as a global reserve asset. In 2024, gold surpassed the euro to become the world's second most significant reserve asset, thanks largely to record purchases by central banks. The U.S. dollar remains dominant with a 46% share of global reserves, while gold accounts for 20%, and the euro holds 16%. This trend reflects a growing recognition of gold's role in diversifying and securing national reserves amid economic uncertainties.
At the close of trading on June 14, 2025, various domestic gold dealers reported slight daily increases. SJC gold bars closed at 117.8-120.3 million VND per tael, up 300,000 VND from the previous day. SJC’s 1-5 tael gold rings were listed at 113.7-116.2 million VND per tael, marking a 200,000 VND increase. Other major dealers showed mixed movements: DOJI’s gold rings remained stable at 115-117 million VND per tael, PNJ’s rings rose by 500,000 to 600,000 VND per tael, and Bao Tin Minh Chau and Phu Quy maintained steady prices.
The narrowing gap between domestic and international gold prices suggests increased alignment with global trends, influenced by both market forces and policy adjustments. Vietnamese investors and consumers keenly watch these developments, balancing geopolitical risks and economic signals as they navigate the volatile gold market.
Looking ahead, the market's focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting scheduled for the week beginning June 16, 2025. Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements will be closely analyzed for clues on future interest rate paths, which historically have a profound impact on gold prices.
In sum, gold's recent rally is a vivid illustration of how geopolitical unrest and central bank policies intertwine to shape global and domestic markets. While the Middle East tensions have pushed prices to historic highs, the sustainability of this surge remains uncertain, hinging on further developments on the geopolitical front and the Federal Reserve’s monetary stance.
